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Provincial Outlook Economic Forecast: Autumn 2018

The Conference Board of Canada, 219 pages, December 20, 2018
Report
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This quarterly economic forecast provides highlights of the Provincial Outlook report, which presents the short-term outlook for Canada's provinces.

Document Highlights

  • Better-than-expected economic news will help the Canadian economy grow by 2.0 per cent in 2019, the same pace as in 2018.
  • The economic outlook for British Columbia is brighter, as LNG Canada’s project for a terminal in Kitimat is moving ahead with development spread over the next five years.
  • The outlook is even brighter for Newfoundland and Labrador. It will lead the country in real economic growth in 2019, thanks to higher oil production.
  • In Central Canada, the Quebec and Ontario economies have been slowing but are still performing well in several sectors.
  • Almost all traces of Alberta’s 2015–16 recession are gone, as the domestic economy has picked up. Still, for the energy sector, challenges remain.
  • Manitoba’s economic performance will be hurt by dwindling mineral production and the weakening of investment, leading to much weaker growth in 2020.
  • It’s been a tough road recently for Saskatchewan, and economic prospects over the near term are modest at best.
  • Above-trend population growth will help keep real GDP growth in Prince Edward Island elevated in 2019. The economic outlook for the rest of the Atlantic region is more muted despite improvements in labour markets.

Table of Contents

RÉSUMÉ

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Newfoundland and Labrador

  • Crude Oil to Fuel Strongest Growth Among Provinces in 2019
  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Trade and Energy Outlook

Prince Edward Island

  • Immigration Bolstering Island Growth
  • Population Growth Creates Demand for Homes and Construction
  • Tourism Showing No Signs of Slowing
  • Stronger Revenues Bode Well for Near-Term Government Spending

New Brunswick

  • Demographics and Fiscal Situation Challenge the Economy
  • Labour, Income, and Consumption Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Business Investment Outlook
  • Trade Outlook
  • Key Sectors

Quebec

  • Cooling Growth
  • Consumption
  • Investment
  • Housing
  • Government
  • Trade

Québec

  • Ralentissement de la croissance
  • Consommation
  • Investissement
  • Logement
  • Gouvernement
  • Commerce

Ontario

  • Ontario’s Economy Still Showing Signs of Strength
  • Weaker but Still Solid Growth in Household Spending
  • Investment Spending a Plus for Growth
  • Toronto’s Housing Market Beginning to Stabilize
  • Cuts in Government Spending on the Way

Manitoba

  • Investment in Capacity Is Key to Long-Term Growth
  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Fiscal Outlook
  • Key Industries

Saskatchewan

  • Economy at the Mercy of Supply-Side Factors
  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Fiscal Outlook
  • Trade Outlook
  • Key Industries

Alberta

  • Pipeline Uncertainty and Low Oil Prices Continue
  • Consumer Outlook
  • Investment Outlook
  • Government Outlook
  • Trade and Energy Outlook

British Columbia

  • Still on Solid Ground, but Some Challenges to Economic Growth
  • Demand-Side Policies Heralding a Housing Slowdown
  • Investment in Major Projects Will Offset Weakness in Housing Construction
  • Still a Fiscal Superstar
  • Export Growth Remains Strong Despite Woes in the Forest Sector

Appendix A–Forecast Tables

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